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Since we’re approaching peak hurricane season and winter is only a couple months away, I figured I would start a thread devoted to all of my nerdy weather reports!

Now those who are a part of the “When I see it I’ll believe it” club will know what thread to ignore! (Plus I won’t keep bumping mizals poor neglected world news thread)

8/19 

August Heat Wave 

Remember when I kept warning about the heat our El Niño was going to inevitable bring this summer awhile back? Well it’s finally here and it is going to be really hot.

Currently a highly anomalous high pressure system is beginning to build over the central plains. As this ridge strengthens it will go on to produce some of the hottest temperatures recorded this summer. This heat will likely stick around all of next week before a cold front potentially provides some much needed relief next weekend.

It is likely many record highs will fall across the central United States next week.

Hurricane Hilary (What an ironic name)

I’m sure everyone and their mother has heard about how historic this storm is going to be and unfortunately all of those hyped up news articles are very true (First tropical system to affect California since 1939 and the first ever system to prompt tropical storm watches/now warnings).

After strengthening to a mid range Cat 4 yesterday Hilary has weakened to a still impressive 130 MPH hurricane as it begins to race north.

Today Hilary will begin to speed up as the ridge over the central plains pulls it north. While the storm advances north it will also begin to weaken as sea surface temperatures cool and wind shear increases. However, this weakening trend will allow the storm to grow in size as well so by the time it approaches the Baja peninsula Hilary will be a very large hurricane. The expected immense size of this storm is the main reason the NHC has issued tropical storm warnings for Southern California.

By the time Hilary reaches California it will have weakened to a tropical storm but will still be very capable of producing gusty winds and most damaging of all, heavy rainfall. Widespread rainfall on this scale is very very rarely seen in Southern California during the summer months which is why the flash flood risk is so high for the area. Anyone living near bodies of water in Southern California should be making preparations to protect property and if possible move to higher ground before the storm arrives.

The Atlantic is Waking Up

For the past 2 almost 3 months a combination of high wind shear and dry air has kept tropical activity in the Atlantic basin relatively quiet. Unfortunately as we approach peak hurricane season, wind shear across the basin is weakening and the dry air which has been so prevalent across the main development region, is beginning to dissipate.

These disappearing negative factors for tropical development are why there are currently 4 AOI’s (Areas of interest) in the Atlantic. 3 of these AOI’s are beginning to spin off of the African coastline, luckily all of these tropical waves should develop and fizzle out safely at sea (Though they will likely still produce a rip current risk along some select coastlines). 

The 4th AOI is currently located over the Bahamas and is expected to potentially develop into a tropical system later next week (50% chance). If it does develop this AOI should stay relatively weak due to still present wind shear over the northern gulf but it will likely still produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds for some portions of Texas and Mexico.

I hope that the waffle house will still be open

This is great, Aldreda.

8/25

Invest 93L

Invest 93L has formed in the western Caribbean and currently has a high (80%) chance of becoming a tropical system per the latest NHC update. The storm is currently expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico next week and pose a threat to Florida.

The environment ahead of 93L will be quite conductive for strengthening (Low wind shear, ample moisture and really hot waters). The one thing that should prevent this system from becoming a monster is its fast speed through the gulf.

By the time 93L approaches the Florida coastline sometime Wednesday it will have likely strengthened to a low-end hurricane (Intensity will depend on how fast it organizes). Right now, it is looking likely landfall will occur somewhere in the big bend area.

Yay! I have a job!

8/27

Tropical Depression 10

TD10 (Formerly 93L) formed near the Yucatan peninsula earlier today. Assuming the systems center doesn’t move onshore it will likely become tropical storm Idalia during DMAX (Diurnal Maximum) tonight. 

Future Idalia will meander around a bit today before finally getting pulled north by an approaching shortwave trough. During this initial journey north across the southern gulf, moderate wind shear from a nearby ULL (Upper level low) will restrict thunderstorm growth on the western side of the system which will slow intensification. 

However by Tuesday the systems orientation to an approaching trough in the Midwest and the ULL over Texas may lead to the shear helping the storm instead of hurting it by expanding its outflow. This expanded outflow would allow the storm to ‘breath’ better likely leading to a bout of sudden intensification that will continue till landfall. 

Given the extremely hot, deep and untouched waters of the eastern gulf this bout of intensification could be rapid as shown by models such as the HWRF and HMON. While I do personally think these hurricane models are overdoing the intensification a bit, the potential for a strong hurricane approaching the Florida coastline Wednesday is certainly there. 

HWRF above

HMON above

Tomorrow the NHC has 7 recon flights lined up to investigate TD10 and the environment ahead of it.

Also a state of emergency has already been declared in Florida.

8/28

Tropical Storm Idalia

Tropical storm Idalia formed yesterday and is currently undergoing a phase of intensification that will lead to it becoming a hurricane before entering the gulf.

The storm drifted a bit further SE than expected yesterday which has created some shifts east in its track. 

Idalia has also been over performing its intensity guidance which has led to repeated changes in the NHC forecast. While westerly wind shear is still expected to slow intensification tomorrow it is now looking basically certain Idalia will begin a period of rapid intensification Tuesday all the way up until landfall. Given the fact Idalia will benefit from a expanded outflow and the deep warm waters of the loop current it is now looking very very likely this storm will become a major hurricane (Cat 3+) prior to landfall. How strong will it get? Well my best guess right now is a 115 - 125 MPH Cat 3 hurricane but when it comes to rapid intensification a storm in an environment such as this one can become a monster (Michael, Ian for example). Idalia is also unfortunately expected to become a rather large hurricane as it approaches Florida which will only expand its impacts. 

Storm surge forecast (These numbers will go up). 

Rainfall amounts forecast (These numbers will go up).

Preparations for Idalia need to be completed by at least Tuesday morning.

8/29

Tropical Storm Idalia

As expected westerly wind shear has slowed Idalia’s intensification today but now that shear is beginning to lessen as the system enters the gulf. Despite Idalia strengthening slower than expected the storm will still go through a period of rapid intensification tomorrow up until landfall (NHC expects a 120 MPH Cat 3 landfall). 

The emerging question when it comes to this intensity forecast is when will Idalia’s structure become organized enough for rapid intensification. Right now the system’s inner core is open to the west due to shear if that inner core repairs itself by Tuesday morning we’re gonna be talking about a very strong hurricane making landfall further east than expected. On the other hand if the system repairs its core more slowly it won’t peak as strong and it’ll make landfall further west.

Due to the uncertainty that still surrounds Idalia’s future intensity the NHC has not changed the storm surge and rainfall forecast maps much today. 

Current storm surge forecast.

Current rainfall forecast.

8/29
Hurricane Franklin 

I also wanted to take this moment to mention the rather beautiful Cat 4 150 MPH hurricane Franklin who has broken the record for most intense tropical system in this portion of the Atlantic (926 MB). Luckily this storm will get safely slingshotted out to sea by the same trough that’s pulling Idalia north into Florida. 

8/30

Hurricane Idalia

Idalia has rapidly intensified into a 110 MPH Cat 2 hurricane yesterday.

Idalia is expected to become a 130 MPH Cat 4 as it continues rapidly intensifying tonight before making landfall 7-9 am.

Not sure what else to say except anyone who hasn’t evacuated needs to take shelter now.

Rainfall forecast.

Storm surge forecast. 

Idalia has made landfall as a 125 MPH Cat 3 hurricane.

My home city used to literally never get inclement weather except one bad ice storm in the 90s, but now gets multiple tornadoes a summer. 

9/6

Tropical Storm Lee

Yesterday Lee formed in the eastern Atlantic and strengthened to a 50 MPH tropical storm.

Conditions ahead of this system are practically perfect for rapid intensification that will likely create an extremely intense hurricane by this weekend north of the Lesser Antilles. The NHC has issued a rare forecast that calls for a 150 MPH peak which is actually on the lower end of the latest intensity model runs.

The storm will continue a gradual W to NW motion throughout this week which will hopefully keep it north of the major eastern Caribbean islands. After the weekend however, track confidence dramatically falls with solutions ranging from OTS (Out to sea) to Lee’s remnants affecting Canada. 

9/7

Hurricane Jova

Wow, yesterday hurricane Jova rapidly intensified into a textbook 160 MPH Cat 5 (The first since 2018’s hurricane Willa). That right there is a 80 knot increase (90 MPH) in just 24 hours!!! This is actually a pretty decent preview to Lees future rapid intensification which is expected to begin soon. 

Luckily Jova will stay far away from land.

Lee has already formed a well-defined eye this afternoon. 

9/11

Hurricane Lee

After peaking as a 165 MPH Cat 5 Friday Lee rapidly weakened due to some poorly modeled mid level wind shear which kept the storm at Cat 3-2 strength for most of the weekend. Today that wind shear let up a bit which has allowed the storm to complete an EWRC and begin reintensifying. Currently Lee is a 120 MPH Cat 3 and is expected to become a 140 MPH Cat 4 Monday night before weakening again as conditions become more hostile.

The future track of this storm still remains uncertain, however, two solution’s have emerged. One solution pulls this storm dangerously close to the northeast while the other (And in my opinion more likely) solution slingshots Lee into Canada.  

I've been so busy watching Lee and also doing college stuff that I completely missed the event. However, I do know the floods in Libya were created by storm Daniel a freak Medicane (Nickname for Mediterranean sea tropical cyclones). 

9/16

Hurricane Lee

After 11 days Lee’s journey across the Atlantic is finally coming to an end. Currently the storm boasts 80 MPH winds however, due to its ongoing extratropical transition (Which it will complete in a few hours) these peak winds are well displaced from the center in the NW quadrant.

The storm will make landfall east of Maine in Canada around 8 PM tonight as a very large and still powerful extratropical cyclone. Due to the storms large size impacts such as heavy rain, powerful wind gusts and a respectfully high storm surge will be felt far from the center.

Rainfall Forecast

Storm Surge Forecast 

9/20

Weekend Mid-Atlantic Storm

Tomorrow a tropical system will begin to form off of the Carolina coastline. This system will have about a day to strengthen before swiftly making landfall in North Carolina Saturday morning.

The main impact from this system will be widespread heavy rainfall in eastern North Carolina and Virginia. Most areas affected can expect 3-5 inches with some localized places potentially picking up 6+.

9/22

Potential Tropical Cyclone 16

Yesterday PTC 16 formed off of the Carolina coast and is expected to continue strengthening into subtropical or tropical storm Ophelia later today. The storm is expected to peak at 60 MPH before making landfall very early tomorrow morning in eastern North Carolina. 

After landfall the weakening system will crawl north prolonging heavy rainfall along the I-95 corridor. Eventually the storm will get caught by an approaching trough which will push its remnants out to sea Monday morning. 

Heavy rainfall which is expected to produce a significant flash flood risk for impacted areas remains the biggest impact from this storm. It is worth noting some localized places could receive significantly more rainfall than the NHC is forecasting in the above graphic.

Due to the storms broad size and the fact landfall will occur at high tide a peak storm surge of 5 feet will cause coastal flooding for communities along the Chesapeake bay and Carolina coastline.

9/29

Remnants of Ophelia

A state of emergency has been declared in New York City as severe flooding spurred on by the remnants of Ophelia strikes the area.

10/22

Hurricane Tammy 

Several days ago a tropical wave organized and strengthened into 85 MPH hurricane Tammy. Currently Tammy is lashing the leeward islands with heavy rain and strong winds as it slowly moves north. By Sunday afternoon the system will be safely out at sea where it is expected to meander around for several days.

2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Reviewed

Typically during an El Niño year the Atlantic hurricane season is quieter due to increased wind shear across the basin however, despite having this dominant feature present we saw:

20 Named Storms

7 Hurricanes 

3 Major Hurricanes 

Luckily most of these systems were weak and short lived (Excluding Franklin, Idalia and Lee). While the official end of hurricane season isn’t until the 30th of November the basin is basically dead now though we could still see 1-2 more fluke storms in the subtropics.

My Winter Outlook (Coming Soon!)

The chill of fall has well and truly set in across America signaling that winter is well on its way. This year, for the first time since 2018 - 2019, we are entering a El Niño winter. These winters can be very different than the La Niña winters we’ve had to suffer through the last couple of years. Currently I am hoping to have a winter outlook out on this thread sometime during the first full week of November.

10/25

Hurricane Otis

Yesterday hurricane Otis in the eastern Pacific rapidly intensified from a mid-range tropical storm to a 160 MPH Cat 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours! The storms 12 hour 80 MPH increase from 65 to 145 MPH is now the fastest 12 hour rapid intensification ever recorded in the eastern Pacific. This breaks 2015’s hurricane Patricia’s record of 75 MPH in 12 hours. Otis will also become the first ever hurricane to make landfall as a Cat 5 in the eastern Pacific when it comes ashore in southern Mexico later tonight.

The global intensity models performed absolutely horrendously with this storm (Forecasted strength solid lines, actual strength dotted line).

Twitter! This guy posts a lot of neat weather statistics and even has his own website.

Just read an article from the LA times that quoted Mexico's president spewing some bullshit about the country being "Lucky" there were "few" deaths. Like anyone with a brain knows 27 is not the real number especially in a big city that had absolutely no time to evacuate from a hurricane packing 165 MPH winds and a storm surge of 20+ feet. However, I do think the government deserves a little slack for their slow response since they had no warning a storm of this magnitude was gonna hit. Just a sad situation all around for an area that I doubt will ever fully recover from this disaster. 

5/6

For the first time since March 2023 the SPC has issued a rare high risk for today's severe weather outbreak which will begin in earnest later this evening.
Severe damaging tornadoes are expected